I-SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Amaxabiso e-Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) angazinza afikelele kwi-$800/tonne kwixesha elide ukuba ioyile ekrwada ihlala ikwi-$70-90/barrel, njengoko ukothuka kwesakhiwo okubangelwe yimfazwe yase-Iran kukuxhasa abavelisi abaneziseko zeendleko ze-US Gulf Coast ezifana ne-Orbia, utshilo i-CEO kwi-Mexican chemicals major ngoLwesithathu.
USameer Bharadwaj uthe ukuba ioyile eluhlaza ihlala ingaphezulu kwe-$60/umphanda, amaxabiso ePVC “akunakwenzeka” ukuba abuyele kwixabiso eliphantsi le-$600/itoni ngaphambili, nangona evumile ukuba ukubonelela ngeoyile kuyaqhubeka kuninzi kwihlabathi liphela.
Ekupheleni kuka-Epreli, amaxabiso e-PVC ayemalunga ne-$750/tonne. Ngaphambili ngoLwesithathu, amaxabiso e-Brent eluhlaza ayethengiswa kwi-$117.55/barrel.
“Esikubonayo ngoku kukukhwankqiswa kobonelelo, kwaye ukunyuka kwe-supply curve kuko okunyuse amaxabiso e-PVC. I-PVC ifumaneka ngobuninzi obaneleyo - ingxaki ayikokunqongophala, yindleko. Amaxabiso aphezulu kuba i-supply curve iphezulu. Apho bahlala khona ekugqibeleni kuxhomekeke ekubeni ioyile ifike phi kwiinyanga ezizayo,” utshilo uBharadwaj.
“Ukuba i-crude ihlala ingaphezulu kakhulu kwi-$60 ngomgqomo, amaxabiso aphantsi e-$600-700/ngetoni akunakwenzeka ukuba abuye. Ukuba ifikelele kuluhlu lwe-$70-90 ngomgqomo, ungalindela ukuba i-PVC izinze malunga ne-$800 ngetoni kwixesha elide, nto leyo eneneni isiphumo esinempilo kushishino.”
“Kukwabalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba umahluko wezinga lokusebenza phakathi kwezantsi nephezulu lomjikelo wePVC awubanzi kangako: isitya simalunga ne-76% kwaye incopho imalunga ne-82-83%,” wongeze watsho, ethetha neentatheli kunye nabahlalutyi be-chemical equity emva kokuba i-Orbia ipapashe iziphumo zayo zemali zekota yokuqala ekuqaleni kwale veki.
Umvelisiintengiso eyonyukileyo kunye nenzuzongexesha lekota yokuqala, unyaka nonyaka, kwaye yanciphisa ilahleko yayo ngelixa iqinisekisa kwakhona isikhokelo sengeniso yayo sowama-2026 - jonga itafile esezantsi ukuze ufumane ulwazi olupheleleyo lwezemali.
Umothuko wemfazwe yinto entle
Nokuba i-PVC ihlala igcwele kakhulu –kwayeiyaqhubeka nokubaenye yezona zinto ziphambili ezithunyelwa ngaphandle eTshayinaiimveliso zepetrochemicals ngenxa yemfuno ephantsi kweli lizwe - imfazwe eMbindi Mpuma itshintshe ngokupheleleyo imeko ye-Orbia, apho i-PVC yeyona mveliso iphambili kwipotifoliyo yayo.
Le nkampani ibike ukuphucuka okukhulu kwicandelo layo lezisombululo zepolymer, okubangelwa kukuphazamiseka okukhulu kwabavelisi bePVC baseAsia abakhuphisanayo, ingakumbi abavelisi nabavelisi baseTshayina abasekwe kwi-ethylene eJapan, eMzantsi Korea, naseTaiwan, ababonelelo lwabo lwe-naphtha yokutya okubalulekileyo luphazamiseke kakhulu yingxabano.
“Impembelelo ekunikezelweni kweoyile, kwaye ngenxa yoko kubonelelo lwe-naphtha oluvela kuMbindi Mpuma, imbi kakhulu, malunga nabavelisi baseAsia be-PVC,” utshilo uBharadwaj.
"Oku kuye kwabangela ukuba basebenze ngamanani aphantsi. Net-net, esikubonayo kukuba ukuthambeka kwendlela yokubonelela ngeenkonzo kunyuke kakhulu, nto leyo ekhokelele ekunyukeni okukhulu kwamaxabiso e-PVC, kwaye siya kuba ngabaxhamli ababalulekileyo kuloo nto kwikota yesibini."
I-CEO iqaphele ukuba inzuzo yexabiso le-Orbia - kunye nesiseko sayo semveliso esisekelwe kakhulu kwi-ethane feedstock evela kwi-US Gulf Coast - ayizange itshintshe kakhulu ngexesha lemfazwe, nto leyo eshiya inkampani ikhuselekile kukuphazamiseka kokunikezelwa kwempahla okuhlasela abakhuphisana nabo baseAsia.
Nangona imfazwe ingaphela kungekudala, utshilo, umonakalo kwi-logistics ye-supply chain uya kuthatha ixesha ukuba uqheleke.
“Uninzi lweengcali zithi nokuba imfazwe iza kuphela kungekudala, ukuphazamiseka kwezinto ezibangela ukuhanjiswa kwempahla kuya kuthatha ubuncinane iinyanga ezintathu ukuya kwezintandathu ukuba kuphele,” wongeze watsho.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Epreli-30-2026