UWalter Hart, iNtloko yeHlabathi yeOlefins kwi-S&P Global Energy CERA, uthe kwiNgqungquthela yeHlabathi yePetrochemical ukuba ukuvalwa ngokupheleleyo kweStrait of Hormuz kuya kubachaphazela kakhulu abavelisi bepetrochemical baseAsia. Iicrackers zomphunga kuMbindi Mpuma ziya kunyanzeleka ukuba zivalwe, ngelixa ezinye izityalo zaseAsia ziya kuyinciphisa imisebenzi ngenxa yokunqongophala kokutya.Imveliso ye-ethylene yehlabathi ngo-2026 kulindeleke ukuba yehle malunga neetoni ezingama-22 ezigidi, ilingana ne-12% yemveliso ka-2025.
Ukungavisisani komkhosi eGulf kuphazamise ukuhanjiswa kokutya kwe-petrochemical. Malunga neetoni ezingama-29 ezigidi zomthamo we-ethylene ngonyaka kummandla weGulf okwangoku awusebenzi, kwaye ukuvalwa ngokupheleleyo e-Iran, eKuwait naseQatar, nakwezinye izityalo zaseMbindi Mpuma kusebenza ngokusondeleyo. Oku sele kunciphise imveliso ye-ethylene yengingqi malunga neetoni ezili-15 ezigidi.
UMbindi Mpuma unomthamo we-ethylene omalunga nezigidi ezingama-35, apho phantse iitoni ezi-6 zezigidi zingaphandle kwePersian Gulf. Oku kushiyaIitoni ezingama-29 ezigidi ze-ethylene esekwe kwiGulf zibonakala ngokuthe ngqoukubonelela ngokuphazamiseka.
Ukuphazamiseka kweenkqubo zokubonelela ngempahla kusasazeka ngaphaya kweGulf. Ukunqongophala kokutya kwe-naphtha kunye ne-crude kunyanzele izixhobo ze-petrochemical kulo lonke elaseAsia ukuba zinciphise amazinga okusebenza. "Ngaphezulu kwesiqingatha samandla ehlabathi achaphazelekile," utshilo uHart. Ukongeza kwiitoni ezingama-29 ezigidi eziphazamisekileyo kwiGulf, ukuqhekeka kokutya kuchaphazele malunga neetoni ezili-105 ezigidi zamandla e-ethylene eAsia.
Ngaphandle kommandla weGulf, uHart uqikelelaIitoni ezisi-7–8 zezigidi zemveliso ye-ethylene yehlabathiiza kulahleka kulo nyaka ngenxa yoxinzelelo lwe-supply chain. Idatha ibonisa ukuba imveliso ye-ethylene yehlabathi ifikelele kwiitoni ezili-185 lezigidi ngo-2025, kunye nomthamo opheleleyo omalunga neetoni ezingama-232 lezigidi.
Le ngxabano iphazamise kakhulu ukuthunyelwa kwe-polyethylene (PE) kunye ne-ethylene glycol (EG) e-Asia kuMbindi Mpuma, nto leyo ebangela ukuba kubekho uthotho lwee-polyolefins, i-polyester kunye ne-PET ezijikelezayo.
Imfuno ye-ethylene yexesha elide isalindeleke ukuba ikhule, nangona ngesantya esiphantsi. I-Hart iqikelela ukuba amazinga okusebenza kunye nemida yenzuzo ayizukubuyela ngokupheleleyo kude kube sekuqaleni ukuya phakathi kweminyaka yoo-2030, xa imfuno ekhulayo ifikelela kulwandiso olutsha lwamandla.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Epreli-10-2026