Ummandla oza kuthwala umthwalo omkhulu wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngo-2024 nguMzantsi-mpuma Asia, ngoko ke uMzantsi-mpuma Asia ubekwa phambili kwimbono ka-2025. Kwinqanaba lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lengingqi ngo-2024, indawo yokuqala ye-LLDPE, i-LDPE, ifom ephambili ye-PP, kunye ne-block copolymerization yiSoutheast Asia, ngamanye amazwi, indawo ephambili yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwiindidi ezi-4 kwezi-6 eziphambili zeemveliso ze-polyolefin yiSoutheast Asia.
Iingenelo: UMzantsi-mpuma Asia ngumda wamanzi neTshayina kwaye unembali ende yentsebenziswano. Ngo-1976, i-ASEAN yasayina iSivumelwano soBudlelwane kunye neNtsebenziswano kuMzantsi-mpuma Asia ukukhuthaza uxolo oluhlala luhleli, ubuhlobo kunye nentsebenziswano phakathi kwamazwe akulo mmandla, kwaye iTshayina yajoyina ngokusesikweni iSivumelwano ngo-Okthobha 8, 2003. Ubudlelwane obuhle bubeke isiseko sorhwebo. Okwesibini, kuMzantsi-mpuma Asia kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ngaphandle kweVietnam Longshan Petrochemical, zimbalwa izityalo ezinkulu ze-polyolefin eziye zafakwa kwimveliso, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ihlale iphantsi kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo, nto leyo enciphisa iingxaki zokubonelela, kwaye umsantsa wemfuno yayo uya kubakho ixesha elide. UMzantsi-mpuma Asia ukwangummandla okhethwayo wokunyusa ukuthunyelwa kweemveliso zabathengisi baseTshayina, ngozinzo oluhle kakhulu.
Iingxaki: Nangona uMzantsi-mpuma Asia uvumelana kakuhle neTshayina iyonke, ukungqubana kwengingqi okuncinci kusangenakuphepheka. Kangangeminyaka emininzi, iTshayina ibizimisele ukukhuthaza iMithetho yokuziPhatha kwiLwandle laseTshayina laseMzantsi ukuqinisekisa ukuba wonke umntu unomdla. Okwesibini, ukukhuselwa korhwebo kuyanda kwihlabathi liphela, njenge-Indonesia ekuqaleni kukaDisemba yaqalisa uphando lokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma ngokuchasene nee-polypropylene homopolymers ezivela eSaudi Arabia, ePhilippines, eMzantsi Korea, eMalaysia, eTshayina, eSingapore, eThailand naseVietnam. Eli nyathelo, elenzelwe ukukhusela iinkampani zasekhaya kwaye ngesicelo seenkampani zasekhaya, alijolisi iTshayina yodwa, kodwa lijolise kumazwe aphambili athumela inkunkuma. Nangona lingenakukuthintela ngokupheleleyo ukungeniswa kwemveliso, akunakuphepheka ukuba amaxabiso okungenisa ancitshiswe ukuya kwinqanaba elithile, kwaye iTshayina kufuneka iqaphele uphando lokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma e-Indonesia ngo-2025.
Sikhankanye apha ngasentla ukuba ezine kwiindidi ezintandathu eziphambili zeemveliso ze-polyolefin zihlala eMzantsi-mpuma Asia, ngelixa ezinye iimveliso ezimbini eziseleyo zithatha indawo yokuqala yiAfrika, indawo enenani elikhulu leemveliso ze-HDPE ezithunyelwa ngaphandle, kunye neMpuma-mpuma Asia, indawo enenani elikhulu lezinye iintlobo ze-PP ezithunyelwa ngaphandle. Nangona kunjalo, xa kuthelekiswa neMpuma-mpuma Asia, iAfrika ithatha indawo yesibini ye-LDPE kunye ne-block copolymerization. Ngoko ke abahleli babeke iAfrika kwindawo yesibini kuluhlu lweendawo eziphambili.
Iingenelo: Kuyaziwa ukuba iTshayina inonxibelelwano olunzulu lwentsebenziswano neAfrika, kwaye iye yanceda iAfrika ngokuphindaphindiweyo. IChina neAfrika zithi lubambiswano olupheleleyo lwentsebenziswano, olunesiseko esinzulu sobuhlobo. Njengoko kukhankanyiwe ngasentla, ukukhuselwa korhwebo kuyanda kwihlabathi liphela, ngeli xesha, kunokwenzeka kakhulu ukuba iAfrika ayizukulandela isantya seNtshona sokuthatha amanyathelo anjalo nxamnye neChina, kwaye ngokwemeko yayo yokubonelela kunye nemfuno, ayixhasi ukuphunyezwa kwamanyathelo anjalo okwangoku. Umthamo wemveliso ye-polypropylene yaseAfrika okwangoku umi kwi-2.21 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka, kubandakanya isityalo se-830,000 zeetoni ngonyaka eNigeria esiqalise ukusebenza kulo nyaka. Umthamo wemveliso ye-polyethylene yi-1.8 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka, apho i-HDPE iyonke yi-838,000 yeetoni ngonyaka. Xa kuthelekiswa nemeko yase-Indonesia, amandla emveliso ye-PP e-Afrika aphindwe kayi-2.36 kuphela kunase-Indonesia, kodwa inani labemi bakhona liphindwe kayi-5 kunase-Indonesia, kodwa kufanelekile ukukhankanya ukuba izinga lobuhlwempu e-Afrika liphezulu xa lithelekiswa nelase-Indonesia, kwaye amandla okusebenzisa ancitshiswa ngokwendalo. Kodwa ekuhambeni kwexesha, isengumakethi onamathuba amakhulu.
Iingxaki: Ishishini leebhanki zaseAfrika aliphuhliswanga, kwaye iindlela zokuhlawula zinqongophele. Kukho amacala amabini kwingqekembe nganye, kwaye iingenelo zeAfrika nazo ziingxaki zayo, kuba amandla exesha elizayo asafuna ixesha lokubonisa, kodwa imfuno yangoku isanqongophele, njengoko kukhankanyiwe apha ngasentla kusekho amandla okusebenzisa angonelanga. Kwaye iAfrika ingenisa okungakumbi kwiMbindi Mpuma, ishiya ilizwe lethu linamathuba anqongopheleyo. Okwesibini, ngenxa yokunqongophala kwamandla eAfrika okujongana nenkunkuma yeplastiki, kwiminyaka edlulileyo, amazwe amaninzi akhuphe imiqathango kunye nokuvalwa kweplastiki. Okwangoku, amazwe angama-34 ewonke akhuphe umthetho wokuthintela iingxowa zeplastiki ezisetyenziswa kanye.
KuMzantsi Melika, iTshayina ithumela i-polypropylene ngaphandle kakhulu, ngokwendlela yokuthumela ngaphandle ukusuka ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Okthobha kulo nyaka, uMzantsi Melika ukwindawo yesibini yokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-PP ephambili, indawo yesithathu kwezinye iintlobo zokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-PP, kwaye indawo yesithathu yokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-block copolymerization. Kwi-polypropylene ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kuphakathi kwezintathu eziphezulu. Kuyabonakala ukuba uMzantsi Melika ubambe isikhundla kwi-polypropylene ethunyelwa ngaphandle eTshayina.
Iingenelo: Amazwe aseMzantsi Melika kunye neTshayina azinazo phantse iingxabano ezinzulu ezishiyekileyo kwimbali, iTshayina neBrazil kwezolimo kunye nentsebenziswano yamandla aluhlaza isondelelene ngakumbi, iqabane eliphambili laseMzantsi Melika i-United States ukusukela oko uTrump wangena emandleni okubeka irhafu kwiimpahla zehlabathi likwabangele ukuqhekeka okuthile kurhwebo lwaseMzantsi Melika ngorhwebo lwayo. Isicwangciso samazwe aseMzantsi Melika sokusebenzisana nelizwe lethu naso sikhula imihla ngemihla. Okwesibini, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lemarike eMzantsi Melika liphezulu kunexabiso eliqhelekileyo lemarike kwilizwe lethu ixesha elide, kwaye kukho amathuba amakhulu e-arbitrage yengingqi yeWindows enenzuzo enkulu.
Iingxaki: NjengaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia, uMzantsi Melika nawo unendlela yokukhusela urhwebo, kwaye kulo nyaka iBrazil ithathe ukhokelo ekuqaliseni iirhafu kwi-polyolefin engenisiweyo ukusuka kwi-12.6% ukuya kwi-20%. Injongo yeBrazil iyafana neye-Indonesia, ukukhusela ishishini layo. Okwesibini, iTshayina neBrazil, empuma nasentshona kunye nemimandla esemantla nasezantsi yenqanawa ende ethe tyaba, ende, ende. Ngokwesiqhelo kuthatha iintsuku ezingama-25-30 ukuhamba ukusuka kunxweme olusentshona loMzantsi Melika ukuya eTshayina, kunye neentsuku ezingama-30-35 ukuhamba ukusuka kunxweme olusempuma loMzantsi Melika ukuya eTshayina. Ke ngoko, ifestile yokuthumela ngaphandle ichaphazeleka kakhulu yimpahla yaselwandle. Ukhuphiswano lunamandla ngokulinganayo, lukhokelwa yi-United States neKhanada, kulandele i-Middle East kunye ne-South Korea.
Nangona abahleli bengabonisi nje kuphela amandla kodwa kunye nobuthathaka bemimandla ephambili yokuthumela ngaphandle, basazidwelisa njengeendawo eziphambili zethemba lokukhula. Esinye isizathu esibalulekileyo sisekelwe kwidatha yembali yokuthumela ngaphandle yonyaka ophelileyo kwanakwiminyaka yakutshanje. Idatha esisiseko, ukuya kuthi ga kwinqanaba elithile, imele ukwenzeka kweenyani, kwaye eneneni yinkqubo ende yokuba kwenzeke utshintsho olubalulekileyo. Ukuba imeko iza kuguqulwa kwixesha elifutshane, umhleli ukholelwa ukuba le miqathango ilandelayo kufuneka ifezekiswe:
1) Iingxabano ezinobundlobongela kulo mmandla, kuquka kodwa kungaphelelanga apho kuqhambuke imfazwe eshushu, ukwanda kokwahlulwa kwabantu kurhwebo kunye nezinye iindlela eziqatha.
2) Utshintsho olukhulu kubonelelo lwengingqi luya kuguqula unikezelo kunye nemfuno, kodwa oku akunakugqitywa ngexesha elifutshane. Ngokuqhelekileyo kuthatha ixesha elide ukusuka kwimveliso yokuqala ukuya ekujikelezweni ngokupheleleyo kwemveliso kwimarike.
3) Ukhuseleko lwezorhwebo kunye nemiqobo yerhafu ijoliswe eTshayina kuphela. Ngokungafaniyo nemilinganiselo eseIndonesia naseBrazil, ukuba irhafu ijoliswe kakhulu kwiimpahla zaseTshayina kuphela, endaweni yazo zonke izinto ezingeniswayo, njengoko iIndonesia neBrazil zenze njalo kulo nyaka, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eTshayina kuya kuba yingxaki ethile, kwaye iimpahla ziya kudluliselwa phakathi kwemimandla.
Ezi meko zezona zinobungozi obukhulu kurhwebo lwehlabathi namhlanje. Nangona ezi meko zingasentla zingafezekiswa ngokupheleleyo okwangoku, intsebenziswano yehlabathi isadibene kwaye kufuneka isetyenziswe kwiindlela ezahlukeneyo. Kodwa ukhuseleko lorhwebo kunye neengxabano zengingqi ziye zanda kakhulu kwiminyaka yakutshanje. Ukugcinwa kunye nenkqubela kwiindawo zokuthumela ngaphandle kufuneka kujongwe ngokusondeleyo malunga nophuhliso kunye namathuba kwezinye iindawo.
Ixesha leposi: Disemba-20-2024