Ummandla oza kuthwala ubunzima bokuthengisa ngaphandle ngo-2024 nguMzantsi-mpuma we-Asiya, ke ngoko i-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia ibekwe phambili kwimbonakalo ka-2025. Kwinqanaba lokuthumela ngaphandle kwengingqi ngo-2024, indawo yokuqala ye-LLDPE, i-LDPE, ifom yokuqala ye-PP, kunye ne-block copolymerization yi-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia, ngamanye amazwi, indawo yokuqala yokuthumela ngaphandle kwezi-4 kwiindidi ezi-6 eziphambili zeemveliso zepololefin nguMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia.
Iingenelo: I-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia yindawo yamanzi kunye ne-China kwaye inembali ende yentsebenziswano. Kwi-1976, i-ASEAN yatyikitya iSivumelwano se-Amity kunye neNtsebenziswano kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia ukukhuthaza uxolo olusisigxina, ubuhlobo kunye nentsebenziswano phakathi kwamazwe akulo mmandla, kwaye i-China yajoyina ngokusemthethweni iSivumelwano ngo-Oktobha 8, 2003. Ubudlelwane obuhle babeka isiseko sorhwebo. Okwesibini, eMzantsi-mpuma Asia kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ngaphandle kweVietnam Longshan Petrochemical, zimbalwa izityalo ezinkulu zepololefin eziye zafakwa kwimveliso, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba zihlale ziphantsi kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo, nto leyo enciphisa inkxalabo yokubonelela, kunye nemfuno yayo. umsantsa uya kubakho ixesha elide. UMzantsi-mpuma weAsia ukwangowona mmandla ukhethwayo wokonyuka kwemveliso ethunyelwa ngaphandle kwabarhwebi baseTshayina, ngozinzo olubalaseleyo.
Ukungalungi: Nangona i-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia ihambelana kakuhle ne-China iyonke, iingxabano zengingqi ezincinci azinakuphepheka. Kwiminyaka emininzi, i-China izibophelele ekukhuthazeni iNdlela yokuziPhatha kwi-South China Sea ukuqinisekisa umdla ofanayo kuwo onke amaqela. Okwesibini, ukukhuselwa kwezorhwebo kuyanda kwihlabathi jikelele, njenge-Indonesia ekuqaleni kukaDisemba iqalise uphando oluchasene nokulahla i-polypropylene homopolymers evela eSaudi Arabia, kwiiPhilippines, eMzantsi Korea, eMalaysia, eChina, eSingapore, eThailand naseVietnam. Intshukumo, eyenzelwe ukukhusela iinkampani zasekhaya kunye nesicelo seenkampani zasekhaya, ayijongi iChina yodwa, kodwa amazwe aphambili avela kumazwe angaphandle. Nangona ingenako ukuthintela ngokupheleleyo ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe, akunakuphepheka ukuba amaxabiso okungenisa elizweni aya kuncitshiswa kwinqanaba elithile, kwaye i-China kufuneka iphinde iqaphele malunga nophando oluchasene nokulahlwa kwe-Indonesia ngo-2025.
Sikhankanye apha ngasentla ukuba ezine kwezi zintandathu ziphezulu iindidi zeemveliso zepololefin zikuMzantsi-mpuma weAsia, ngelixa iimveliso ezimbini ezishiyekileyo zikwindawo yokuqala yiAfrika, indawo enelona nani likhulu lokuthengisa ngaphandle kweHDPE, kunye noMntla-mpuma Asia, indawo enezona mveliso zikhulu. inani lezinye iintlobo zePP ezithunyelwa ngaphandle. Nangona kunjalo, xa kuthelekiswa ne-Northeast Asia, iAfrika ikwindawo yesibini ye-LDPE kunye ne-block copolymerization. Abahleli ke ngoko babeka iAfrika kwindawo yesibini kuluhlu lweendawo eziphambili.
Izinto eziluncedo: Kuyaziwa ukuba i-China inentsebenziswano enzulu yentsebenziswano ne-Afrika, kwaye ngokuphindaphindiweyo isiza ukunceda i-Afrika. I-China ne-Afrika ziyibiza ngokuba lubuhlakani obubanzi bentsebenziswano, obunesiseko esinzulu sobuhlobo. Njengoko kukhankanyiwe ngasentla, ukukhuselwa korhwebo kunyuka kwihlabathi jikelele, ngeli xesha, kunokwenzeka ukuba i-Afrika ayiyi kulandela isantya saseNtshona ukuthatha amanyathelo anjalo ngokuchasene neChina, kwaye ngokwemiqathango yokubonelela kunye nemfuno yayo, iyakwenza. ukungakuxhasi ukuphunyezwa kwamanyathelo anjalo ngoku. Umthamo wemveliso wepolypropylene eAfrika ngoku umi kwi-2.21 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka, kubandakanywa iitoni ezingama-830,000 ngonyaka ngonyaka eNigeria eziye zafumaneka kulo nyaka. Umthamo wemveliso ye-polyethylene ye-1.8 yezigidi zeetoni / ngonyaka, apho i-HDPE iyonke i-838,000 yeetoni / ngonyaka. Xa kuthelekiswa nemeko e-Indonesia, amandla emveliso ye-PP yase-Afrika ngamaxesha angama-2.36 kuphela e-Indonesia, kodwa abemi bawo malunga namaxesha angama-5 e-Indonesia, kodwa kubalulekile ukukhankanya ukuba izinga lentlupheko lase-Afrika liphezulu kakhulu xa lithelekiswa ne-Indonesia, kwaye amandla okusetyenziswa anjalo. isaphulelo ngokwendalo. Kodwa ekuhambeni kwexesha, iseyimarike enamandla amakhulu.
Iingxaki: Ishishini lebhanki laseAfrika aliphuhliswanga, kwaye iindlela zokuhlalisa zinqongophele. Kuhlala kukho amacala amabini kwingqekembe nganye, kwaye inzuzo ye-Afrika nayo iyingxaki yayo, kuba amandla exesha elizayo asafuna ixesha lokungqina, kodwa imfuno yangoku isanqongophele, njengoko kukhankanyiwe ngasentla kusekho amandla okusetyenziswa angonelanga. Kwaye iAfrika ithenga kumazwe angaphandle kakhulu kuMbindi Mpuma, ishiya ilizwe lethu linamathuba anqongopheleyo. Okwesibini, ngenxa yokunqongophala kwamandla eAfrika okujongana nenkunkuma yeplastiki, ekuhambeni kweminyaka, amazwe amaninzi akhuphe izithintelo zeplastiki kunye nokuvalwa. Okwangoku, amazwe angama-34 ewonke akhuphe isithintelo sokusetyenziswa kweengxowa zeplastiki zokusetyenziswa kanye.
EMzantsi Melika, i-China ithengisa kakhulu i-polypropylene, kwipatheni yokuthumela ngaphandle ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Oktobha kulo nyaka, uMzantsi Melika ukwindawo yesibini ye-PP ephambili yokuthunyelwa ngaphandle, indawo yesithathu yezinye iindlela zokuthunyelwa kwe-PP, kunye nendawo yesithathu ye-block copolymerization. ezithunyelwa ngaphandle. Kwiipolypropylene ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ziphakathi kwezintathu eziphezulu. Ingabonwa ukuba uMzantsi Melika ukwindawo yokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-polypropylene yaseTshayina.
Izinto eziluncedo: Amazwe aseMzantsi Melika kunye neTshayina phantse akukho kuphikisana okunzulu okushiyekileyo kwimbali, iChina kunye neBrazil kwezolimo kunye nentsebenziswano yamandla aluhlaza iya isondelelana kakhulu, iqabane eliphambili laseMzantsi Melika i-United States ukusukela oko uTrump wangena ekulawuleni ukunyanzelisa iirhafu kwiimpahla zehlabathi nazo zabangela. umsantsa othile kurhwebo lwaseMzantsi Merika norhwebo lwayo. Inyathelo lamazwe aseMzantsi Melika lokusebenzisana nelizwe lethu nalo liya lisanda umhla nezolo. Okwesibini, i-avareji yexabiso lemarike eMzantsi Melika liphezulu kunexabiso lemarike eliphakathi kwilizwe lethu ixesha elide, kwaye kukho amathuba amakhulu e-arbitrage yengingqi yeWindows enenzuzo enkulu.
Ukungalungi: NjengoMzantsi-mpuma we-Asiya, uMzantsi Merika nawo unokhuselo lorhwebo, kwaye kulo nyaka i-Brazil iye yakhokela ekuphumezeni imirhumo kwi-polyolefin ethengwa kumazwe angaphandle ukusuka kwi-12.6% ukuya kwi-20%. Injongo yeBrazil iyafana neye-Indonesia, ukukhusela ishishini layo. Okwesibini, i-China kunye neBrazil, impuma nentshona kunye ne-hemispheres esemantla nasezantsi yezo zimbini zagxadazela, indlela ende, inqanawa ende. Ngokuqhelekileyo kuthatha iintsuku ezingama-25-30 ukuhamba ukusuka kunxweme olusentshona loMzantsi Melika ukuya eTshayina, kunye neentsuku ezingama-30-35 ukuhamba ukusuka kunxweme olusempuma loMzantsi Melika ukuya eTshayina. Ngoko ke, ifestile yokuthumela ngaphandle ichaphazeleka kakhulu yimpahla yolwandle. Ukhuphiswano lunamandla ngokulinganayo, olukhokelwa yi-United States kunye neCanada, ilandelwa yi-Middle East kunye ne-South Korea.
Nangona abahleli bedwelisa kungekuphela nje amandla kodwa kunye nobuthathaka bemimandla ephambili yokuthumela ngaphandle, basazidwelisa njengeendawo eziphezulu zokukhula kwethemba. Isizathu esinye esibalulekileyo sisekwe kwidatha yembali yokuthumela ngaphandle ukusuka kunyaka ophelileyo nakwiminyaka yakutshanje. Idatha esisiseko, kwinqanaba elithile, imele ukwenzeka kweenyani, kwaye eneneni yinkqubo ende yotshintsho olubalulekileyo lwenzeke. Ukuba imeko iza kubuyiselwa umva ngexesha elifutshane, umhleli ukholelwa ukuba le miqathango ilandelayo kufuneka ifezekiswe:
I-1) Iingxabano ezinobundlobongela kummandla, kubandakanywa kodwa kungaphelelanga ekuqhambukeni kwemfazwe eshushu, ukunyuka kwe-trade isolationism kunye namanye amanyathelo aqatha.
I-2) Utshintsho olukhulu kunikezelo lwengingqi luya kuguqula ukubonelela kunye nokufunwa, kodwa oku akukwazi ukugqitywa ngexesha elifutshane. Ngokuqhelekileyo kuthatha ixesha elide ukusuka kwimveliso yokuqala ukuya ekujikelezweni okupheleleyo kwemveliso kwiimarike.
I-3) Ukukhuselwa kwezorhwebo kunye nezithintelo zeerhafu zijoliswe kuphela eChina. Ngokungafaniyo namanyathelo e-Indonesia naseBrazil, ukuba iirhafu zijolise kuphela kwiimpahla zaseTshayina, endaweni yazo zonke izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle, njengoko i-Indonesia neBrazil zenze kulo nyaka, ke ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kuya kujongwa ngesibetho esithile, kwaye iimpahla ziya kudluliselwa phakathi. imimandla.
Ezi meko ngokwenene zezona mngcipheko zigqithisileyo kurhwebo lwehlabathi namhlanje. Nangona le miqathango ingentla ingafezekiswanga ngokupheleleyo okwangoku, intsebenziswano yehlabathi isabambene kwaye kufuneka isetyenziswe kumacala ahlukeneyo. Kodwa ukukhuselwa kwezorhwebo kunye neengxabano zengingqi ziye zaxhaphaka kakhulu kwiminyaka yamuva. Ukugcinwa kunye nenkqubela phambili kwiindawo ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kufuneka kwakhona kubekwe iliso elibukhali kuphuhliso kunye namathuba kweminye imimandla.
Ixesha lokuposa: Dec-20-2024