Imbonakalo yeMarike yokuThumela ngaphandle izinto eziluhlaza zePET ngo-2025: Iintsingiselo kunye neeNgqikelelo

1. Isishwankathelo seMarike yeHlabathi

Imakethi yokuthumela ngaphandle ye-polyethylene terephthalate (PET) kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwiitoni ezingama-42 ezigidi ngo-2025, nto leyo emele izinga lokukhula konyaka eliyi-5.3% ukusuka kumanqanaba ka-2023. I-Asia iyaqhubeka nokulawula ukuhamba korhwebo lwe-PET kwihlabathi liphela, ibala i-68% yempahla ethunyelwa kwamanye amazwe iyonke, ilandelwa yi-Middle East kwi-19% kunye ne-America kwi-9%.

Abaqhubi abaPhambili beMarike:

• Ukunyuka kwemfuno yamanzi asemabhotileni kunye neziselo ezibandayo kumazwe asakhasayo kwezoqoqosho
• Ukwamkelwa okwandisiweyo kwe-PET ephinda isetyenziswe (rPET) kwiphakheji
• Ukukhula kwemveliso yefayibha yepolyester kwimpahla yokunxiba
• Ukwandiswa kwezicelo ze-PET ezikumgangatho wokutya

2. Iintshukumo zoThumelo lweMimandla ngaphandle

I-Asia-Pacific (68% yezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kwihlabathi liphela)

• I-China: Kulindeleke ukuba igcine isabelo semarike se-45% nangona imimiselo yokusingqongileyo ilawula, kunye nokongezwa komthamo omtsha kumaphondo aseZhejiang naseFujian
• I-India: Umthengisi okhula ngokukhawuleza nge-14% ngonyaka, exhamla kwiinkqubo zenkuthazo ezinxulumene nemveliso
• Mzantsi-mpuma we-Asia: IVietnam neThailand zivela njengababoneleli abahlukileyo abanamaxabiso akhuphisanayo ($1,050-$1,150/MT FOB)

EMpuma Ephakathi (19% yezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle)

• ISaudi Arabia kunye ne-UAE zisebenzisa uthotho lwexabiso oludibeneyo lwe-PX-PTA
• Iindleko zamandla ezikhuphisanayo zigcina inzuzo eyi-10-12%
• Amaxabiso e-CFR Europe aqikelelwa kwi-$1,250-$1,350/MT

Amazwe aseMelika (9% yezinto ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe)

• IMexico iqinisa isikhundla sayo njengeyona ndawo ikufutshane neemveliso zaseMelika
• IBrazil ilawula ukuhanjiswa kwempahla eMzantsi Melika ngokukhula kwe-8% yokuthumela ngaphandle

3. Iindlela zokuThengisa amaxabiso kunye neMigaqo-nkqubo yoRhwebo

Imbonakalo yamaxabiso:

• Amaxabiso okuthumela kwamanye amazwe aseAsia aqikelelwa kuluhlu lwe-$1,100-$1,300/MT
• Iiflakes ze-rPET zibiza i-premium eyi-15-20% ngaphezu kwezinto ezingabonakaliyo
• Iipellets zePET ezikumgangatho wokutya zilindeleke kwi-$1,350-$1,500/MT

Uphuhliso lweMigaqo-nkqubo yoRhwebo:

• Imithetho emitsha ye-EU iyalela ubuncinci i-25% yomxholo ophinda usetyenziswe
• Iindleko ezinokubakho zokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma kubathengisi abakhethiweyo baseAsia
• Iindlela zokulungisa umda wekhabhoni ezichaphazela ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kude
• Isatifikethi se-ISCC+ siba ngumgangatho woshishino wozinzo

4. Impembelelo yokuZinza kunye nokuRisayikilisha

Utshintsho kwiMarike:

• Imfuno ye-rPET yehlabathi ikhula kwi-9% CAGR ukuya kuthi ga ngo-2025
• Amazwe angama-23 asebenzisa iinkqubo zoxanduva olude lwabavelisi
• Iimpawu eziphambili zizimisele ukufikelela kwi-30-50% yeenjongo zomxholo ophinde wasetyenziswa

Uphuhliso lweTekhnoloji:

• Izityalo zokuphinda zisetyenziswe nge-enzyme zifikelela kwinqanaba lorhwebo
• Iitekhnoloji zokucoca kakhulu ezivumela i-rPET yokunxibelelana nokutya
• Izakhiwo ezili-14 ezintsha zokuphinda kusetyenziswe iikhemikhali ezisakhiwayo kwihlabathi liphela

5. Iingcebiso eziCwangcisiweyo zabaThumeli ngaphandle

1. Ukwahlukahluka kweeMveliso:
   • Phuhlisa amanqanaba akhethekileyo kwizicelo ezixabisa kakhulu
   • Tyala imali kwimveliso ye-rPET evunyiweyo ngokutya
   • Yenza iinguqulelo eziphuculweyo zokusebenza kweempahla zobugcisa
2. Ukuphuculwa kweJografi:
   • Misela iindawo zokulahla inkunkuma kufutshane namaziko amakhulu emfuno
   • Sebenzisa izivumelwano zorhwebo zasimahla ze-ASEAN ukuze ufumane iingenelo zerhafu
   • Phuhlisa amaqhinga okusondela kwiimarike zaseNtshona
3. Ukuhlanganiswa kozinzo:
   • Fumana iziqinisekiso zozinzo lwamazwe ngamazwe
   • Sebenzisa iipasipoti zemveliso zedijithali ukuze kulandelelwe
   • Sebenzisana nabanini beempawu kwiindlela zokuvula iibhrendi ezivaliweyo

Imakethi yokuthumela ngaphandle iiPET ngo-2025 inika imingeni kunye namathuba njengoko imithetho yokusingqongileyo iguqula iipatheni zorhwebo zemveli. Abathumeli ngaphandle abaphumelela ekuzivumelaniseni neemfuno zoqoqosho olujikelezayo ngelixa begcina ukhuphiswano lweendleko baya kuba kwindawo engcono yokuzuza kwimfuno ekhulayo yehlabathi.